Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party high in polls

In a Newshub-Reid Research poll released on 26 July, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party posted an extraordinary lead of 60.9%. A result like that in the election on 19 September would deliver Ardern a sizeable majority in the House and a strong mandate for her party to lead the economic recovery without a coalition.

The opposition National Party scored 25.1% on the same poll, causing their deputy leader to question the polling company’s methodology.

Opinion polling has been in the spotlight in recent years for ‘inaccuracy’ in relation to actual electoral results and outcomes. But Labour has been polling over 50% since April.

Certainly the polls, and public opinion at large, have been volatile lately, as New Zealand goes through the Covid-19 crisis. Prime minister Ardern seems to be taking nothing for granted, however, and realises that she has to continue to earn the confidence of the electorate.

At the moment, it looks most likely that she will return for a second term as prime minister. But the political climate is unpredictable, and public opinion has been changeable, so Labour cannot afford to switch to auto-pilot.