NZ’s Election 2020: A summary

For the first time since MMP elections began in 1996, one party can form a majority government on its own. It’s not a slim majority for Labour, and they won’t need Green MPs sitting in cabinet – although the Greens have expressed interest in holding at least one ministerial portfolio. We needn’t regard this outcome as a return to the Muldoon era of ‘unbridled power’ (to use the title of Geoffrey Palmer’s 1979 book) as Ardern and co will need to be mindful that this majority will probably only last one term, and that voters can easily punish them for over-playing the hand they’ve been dealt.

With preliminary votes putting Labour on 49.1% – and special votes likely to boost numbers on the left – it’s an election that breaks records for MMP elections. The highest party vote before this under MMP was National’s 47.3% in 2011.

Labour got a low of 25% in 2014, and, following Ardern’s taking up the reins, they rose to 37% of the party vote in 2017. Leaping to 49% in 2020 is an extraordinary feat. It’s only exceeded by the victory that gave Labour a second term in 1938.

There was a relatively high percentage (7.7%) of ‘wasted’ votes (that is, votes for parties that did not win any seats). This meant that the ‘effective’ party vote for Labour was 53.1%, hence giving them a majority of seats.

Economic activity had dropped drastically in the June quarter, but the opinion poll support for Labour rose to stellar heights, from 55 to 60% in July. Far from getting the blame for the downturn, the Ardern government was gaining support due to its decisive response to the pandemic.

But it was to be expected that such a high level of support would decline. Opinion polls leading into the election were indicating Labour in the mid-forties. And the final three opinion polls had National in the low thirties. Why did they under-estimate Labour and over-estimate National?

With record-breaking levels of advance votes, just shy of 2 million, and a slight boost in the percentage of the eligible population enrolled, notably in the 18 to 29 age-range, voter turnout was high. The Electoral Commission reported: ‘The total estimated votes (those counted on election night plus estimated special votes still to be counted) is 2,877,117’. That’s 82.5% of registered voters, compared with 79.8% in 2017. This may help to explain the higher-than-expected results for Labour and for the Greens. Higher turnouts tend to favour the left.

Pollsters may also have failed to sample enough younger voters who turned out partly for cannabis legalisation and control, and partly for Labour or the Greens.

National suffered some surprise losses at the level of local electorates, for example in Ilam. But, even in traditionally safe blue seats that National did retain, the candidates’ majorities were significantly reduced, and the party vote went in favour of Labour. Botany and Selwyn are examples of this. It may be the case that opinion polls did not pick up a large number of people who said they’d vote National but then switched to party-vote Labour in order to keep the Greens out of reach of a coalition.

It also has to be said that Judith Collins did not lead a great campaign overall, although she did perform well in head-to-head debates. Down provisionally below 27% of the party vote, National could become mired at that level for some time to come, just as Labour was from 2008 to mid-2017.

In order to retain office after the next election (2023), it would be logical, from a vote-seeking viewpoint, for Labour to appeal more to the centrist voters that it has won over from National. But naturally Ardern will also be under pressure from the party’s more progressive left. They will expect socially and environmentally transformative policies, especially after feeling thwarted in the last term due to the more cautious or conservative influence of NZ First.

After being criticised for ‘failing to deliver on promises’, Labour now has a clear run for delivery. But will they veer to the left, or stick with a relatively cautious middle way?

As a final note, the return of the Māori Party with one seat means there are now five parties in parliament. Hence, the decline in numbers of parties represented is not occurring as I’d predicted. And, of course, the defeat for NZ First is another story – or maybe end of a story – to tell on another occasion.