Ardern’s resignation: was it timely?

Election year 2023 got off to an interesting start when prime minister Jacinda Ardern announced (on 19 January) that she was resigning and would quit parliament in April. The Labour Party caucus would elect a new leader to contest the election in October.

Ms Ardern’s leadership has been widely praised internationally. So, what does this say about her leadership? Was it her time to move aside?

The moments in which Ardern shone as a leader (a terrorist attack, a volcanic eruption and a pandemic) were all events that neither she nor any other sane person would have wished for. And she did a great job leading the country through those difficult times.

But these were not the kinds of things that she’d set out to achieve as a politician. Child poverty was a special concern for her, and, to give her credit, the Labour government did make some strides in addressing that social problem. But it’s not what she’ll be remembered for.

Ironically, her government’s comparative success in responding to the Covid-19 pandemic has contributed a lot to undoing Ardern’s prime ministership, due to the polarization of opinion – and the sheer level of hatred from many people – that arose from the strict measures (vaccine mandates and border controls) that were taken. The pandemic was the making and the breaking of Ardern as prime minister.

Labour meanwhile was trailing behind National in the polls in late 2022, especially after National chose a new leader, Christopher Luxon, in November 2021. Centrist voters were abandoning Labour.

By her own admission, Ardern no longer had the energy to lead the party into the 2023 election. Indeed, she used exactly the same metaphor (‘not enough in the tank’) as John Key had used in 2016 when he stood down as prime minister.

So, New Zealand has now had two popular prime ministers who’ve bowed out voluntarily ahead of an election.

We can view this as a sign of strength: knowing when your job’s done and knowing when it’s time to move aside. Ardern talked about ‘the responsibility to know when you’re the right person to lead, and also when you’re not’, and about knowing ‘when it’s time to go’.

The implication is that she’d reached the conclusion that she was no longer the right person. It takes a brave person to admit that and to act on it.

Her decision wasn’t really a surprise, as the question of the party leadership was raised in late 2021. At that time, I wrote:

‘As the emotional and financial costs and the social divisions [arising from the pandemic] mount up daily in people’s lives, many turn their anger and frustration on the country’s leader… These tensions could become so glaring that a refreshed leadership is necessary in the interests of the party’s future election chances.’

But it remains to be seen how Ardern’s resignation will affect her party’s performance at the election. She has handed Labour an opportunity to refresh its leadership and its policy direction, and it’s up to them to use that opportunity effectively – or not.