Where to now for NZ Labour?

Labour’s and Ardern’s polling hit great heights in mid 2020 and gradually declined from then. Labour won 50% in the September 2020 election but their polling continued to decline after that, falling to the low 30s by the time Ardern resigned in January 2022.

This decline was mainly a swing from Labour to National, and it seems to have been driven by a number of factors: some disillusionment with Ardern as a leader, a boost for National following their leadership change in late 2021, and also public dissatisfaction with some of Labour’s policies – or perhaps with the process by which those policies (notably 3 Waters) were being introduced.

A paradoxical situation arose in which National was leading Labour in the preferred party polls by about 5 or 6 percentage points, but its leader (Luxon) was running second, behind Ardern, in preferred PM polls. That suggests that Luxon hasn’t been the only pull factor for National.

What’s driving people from Labour to National can’t be explained solely by leadership, especially in light of Ardern’s higher (albeit declining) rating as preferred PM, up until she resigned. It appears to be about government policy as well.

Many of the roughly 32% who remained with Labour will undoubtedly have been very disappointed to see Ardern step down. But her replacement, Chris Hipkins, is a likeable and competent leader, the transition was smooth and rapid, and it looks unlikely that there’ll be a big drop in support for Labour as a result of it. Labour supporters who are really upset about the loss of Ardern are more likely to consider the Greens as an alternative, rather than Luxon and the National Party.

Labour could experience a boost from the leadership change, on the other hand, even if it’s only a temporary ‘honeymoon’.

But the switch from Ardern to Hipkins won’t reboot Labour in the way that the switch from Andrew Little to Ardern did in August 2017.

Hipkins has to establish himself as likeable, trustworthy and competent, which I think he can do. But, on its own, a change of leader won’t turn the tide and bring back those who’ve defected. To the extent that Ardern’s leadership style had begun to turn some people off, it may help a bit. (Many otherwise decent mild-mannered Kiwis had become annoyed with Ardern’s leadership style.)

The other two main options for Labour now will be addressing the economic stress facing families and rethinking its most controversial policy reforms. And that includes co-governance, as that’s shaping up to be one major line of attack, especially by ACT, and a vulnerability for Labour, in the coming election debates.

There’s no doubt that the Ardern government did a great job in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic, and that meant a relatively low mortality rate. But the living have to make a living…