As polling gets underway…

Overseas polling is open and advance polling booths open on 3 October. So, what’s the situation?

Opinion polls since May suggested that Labour could gain a majority of seats. It was predictable, however, that such stellar polling, from 55 to 60%, would decline as economic reality started to bite. More recently, as Labour’s polling figures fell, a Labour-Green coalition government began to look more likely.

Jacinda Ardern has been consistently well ahead of her main rival, Judith Collins, in ‘preferred prime minister’ opinion polls.

A pathway towards a centre-right National-ACT government opens up, however, if the Greens fall below the 5% threshold. If, in addition, sufficient numbers of those former National voters who were planning to switch to Labour this time round change their minds and go back to National, then it could be a cliff-hanger on election night. We may even have a two-week wait while special votes are counted.