Is New Zealand’s “Covid Election” winnable?

Can a sitting government win an election in the midst of a major economic crash, particularly while implementing policies that actively suppress economic activity?

Conventional wisdom would say it’s a pathway to defeat – unless you have a compelling narrative that the economic damage is all for a greater good, somehow. You could say that it’s in aid of national defence against a deadly pandemic, and that an alternative laissez-faire “herd immunity” policy would be worse for the economy in the long run.

Opposition parties don’t get plain sailing, what’s more. Under conditions of national crisis, they risk appearing unhelpful, if not unpatriotic, if they criticise a government that is valiantly fighting an implacable foe.

They might expose governmental incompetence, when they uncover it, especially if it’s endangering lives. But they have to somehow prove that they have a better way to fight the virus, with less economic loss, without any past experience to draw upon.

For both the party that leads government and the opposition, there is significant downside risk. The worst result, if they both lose voters to minor parties, would be a stalemate – a hung parliament. National crisis then begets constitutional crisis with unpalatable political compromises and a long delay in government-formation, just when the country needs decisive and active government.

And no one wins.

The New Zealand General Election (on 17 October) appears not to be headed into that zone – for the time being. So far, the incumbent Labour Party, led by prime minister Jacinda Ardern, has been polling over 50%, sufficient to form a single-party majority government.

But, then, John Key’s National Party was also riding over 50% prior to the 2011 election – at which his party achieved a lower, but still very strong, 47.3% share of the party vote. Don’t blame the pollsters, however. Something unexpectedly came unstuck.

In the present case, many voters’ patience and trust will be wearing thin as lockdown continues in response to a coronavirus outbreak that came to light on 11 August. But, how thin? How many voters who have switched to supporting Labour could switch back to National out of frustration? And will the pandemic suppress, or stimulate, voter participation?

The 2020 Election will be one to watch, especially as it is one of the first in the western democratic world to be staged while the global pandemic is still in full swing.

(NB: The second round of the Stuff/Massey online survey goes live on Sunday 30 August.)